Evening Wrap: ASX 200 pops as bargain hunters target Energy, Rare Earths and Base Metals stocks, WDS, LYC and RIO standouts (2025)

A bit of a mystery. That's how you'd describe today's gains on the ASX – unless perhaps there's something in the price action in the Nasdaq chart to explain it (you'll have to read ChartWatch for that).

The price of crude oil was higher overnight, so perhaps this explains why Energy stocks were stronger, but the modest rise in the crude price arguably doesn't explain the magnitude of gains in the sector, with majors Woodside Energy (WDS) (+3.9%) and Santos (STO) (+2.9%) up a fraction of the gains in sector leaders Ampol (ALD) (+7.7%) and Karoon Energy (KAR) (+7.6%).

Major iron ore miners like BHP Group (BHP) (+1.1%) and Rio Tinto (RIO) (+2.9%) also rallied, but this time without a commensurate increase in the iron ore price. Indeed most metals prices were lower over the last 24-hours. This didn't stop strong gains across the Resources sector, though, with most areas highly sought after...lithium (PLS +4%), rare earths (LYC +5.7%), critical metals (ASM +22%), copper (SFR +4.3%) – Shall we call it indiscriminate buying or carefullly considered bargain hunting!?

The unemployment rate edged up to 4.1%, but analysts suggest this is more to do with a rising number of people looking for work – which is a good thing. Either way, most believe its unlikely to deter the RBA from a potential rate cut in May.

To make sense of all the above, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite, S&P/ASX 200, and Uranium in today's ChartWatch.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Let's dive in!

Today in Review

Thu 17 Apr 25, 4:58pm (AEST)

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 60.2 points higher at 7,819.1, 0.80% from its session low and smack–bang on its session high. Confirming today’s bullish turn for the better in the benchmark, in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers beat decliners by a resounding 220 to 59. For the week, the XJO finished up 172.8 points or 2.26% higher – also smack bang at it's best point for the period.

Some food for thought as we close up for the week. I have for you some transcribed excerpts from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's post-speech interview at the Economic Club of Chicago from earlier this morning.

On how US trade policy might impact inflation

• Powell: "The tariffs are larger than forecasters had expected, certainly larger that we expected, even our upside cases and we looked at a range of cases. It raises the risks the public will begin to experience higher inflation, they'll come to expect it and companies will come to expect it, so that risks higher inflation. We have to keep inflation expectations well anchored. Indeed our role is to make sure that this will be a one time increase in prices and not something that turns into an ongoing inflation crisis, that's a big part of our job."

• Takeaway: The potential inflationary impacts Tariffs are definitely on the Fed's radar. It's concerned that any resultant prices rise could grow to be more than just a one-off if consumers' and businesses' inflation expectations become unhinged. This confirms the market's concern that the Fed may slow their current rate hike cycle due to tariff impact concerns.

On the potential supply-side impacts of US trade policy

• Powell: "When you think about supply disruptions, that is the kind of thing that could take time to resolve and it could lead to what would have been a one time inflation shock to be extended and be more persistent and we would worry about that."

• Takeaway: Powell here discusses potential parallels with the COVID-19 pandemic, where supply chain disruptions led to long wait times and higher prices charged for goods. He specifically mentioned the semiconductors / chips shortage – which we know is a looming policy focus area for the Trump administration.

On the current uncertainty created by US trade policy

• Powell: "Businesses and households are experiencing incredibly high uncertainty. There's a lot of research show that does lead to businesses and households stepping back from decisions. If the uncertainty remains high, I think that's a difficult environment, I think people's expected rates of return would have to be higher, I think that would weigh on investment in general. If the United States were to become a jurisdiction where risks are just structurally higher going forward that would make use less attractive."

• Takeaway: This is potentially the scariest scenario discussed in the interview – the idea that consumers and businesses will withhold spending and investment on the basis of ongoing US trade policy uncertainty. If we have higher inflation, a hamstrung Fed, and economic growth in the toilet – standards of living are going to fall and Americans are going to lose jobs. Stagflation, recession, all sorts of bad catchphrases could be bandied around here...

On the Fed Put

• Interviewer: "Some people believe the Fed will intervene if the stock market plummets, the so called "Fed Put", are they correct?

• Powell: No with an explanation* (crowd laughs nervously!)"

• Takeaway: *In transcribing various parts of the interview, I originally wrote down "exclamation", as in "No!". I posted the incorrect version on X and it was pointed out to me by a follower that the correct word used was "explanation", I relistened, and I stand corrected! However...I think we all know what JP really wanted to say! 😁

• His explanation reiterated markets are struggling with uncertainty, but appear to be "functioning" and "orderly". This implies he sees nothing in market behaviour so far that would warrant any extra support from the Fed.

On the bond market

• Powell: "It's very premature to say exactly what's going on [in the bond market]. The market's processing historically unique developments and I think you'll see continued volatility. The markets are orderly and they're functioning as you expect them to in this current line of uncertainty."

• Takeaway: This was perhaps the biggest surprise for me, unless old JP just has a very good poker face! He seems unperturbed by the recent ructions in the bond market – the same ructions that supposedly forced President Trump to walk-back his "reciprocal" tariffs. If the bond market is in trouble, JP's the man that would know about it. It doesn't seem like the Fed has had to do any work here (i.e., provide liquidity), and so perhaps we shouldn't be concerned about the bond market either – perhaps it really is "beautiful"!

On Fed independence

• Powell: "We will only make our decisions based on our best thinking, based on our best analysis of the data, about what is the way to achieve our dual mandate goals to best serve the American people. We are never going to influenced by any political pressure."

• Takeaway: JP also discussed that the legislation as it stands makes it impossible for anyone (you know who!) to fire him or any other Fed officials. So there. The Fed is going to make its best call regardless of what the White House wants.

Conclusions

It's refreshing to see a US government official behaving in a calm, considered, and respectful manner – speaking only about things he's an expert on. I've always liked JP, he's level-headed, and he rarely speaks out of turn. He knows his stuff. We're in good hands.

Potentially concerning bits:

• The Fed will act to control inflation expectations, and this could limit future rate cuts even if the US economy (and the markets) require them.

• The Fed is concerned about a sudden slow down in the US economy, driven by consumers and businesses pulling back due to trade policy uncertainty.

Potentially reassuring bits:

• The bond market isn't broken – that's a big one. However, if it's not broken, then it also doesn't need fixing in terms of easing financial liquidity.

• Exclamation point or not, even if there's no Fed Put (he was never going to admit there is one), the Fed is on the ball, and most importantly, it remains independent from any Trump administration meddling!

You can watch the whole speech and interview here:

NASDAQ Composite Index

Never confuse coincidence with foresight or skill! 🚫 (click here for full size image)

Two, very nearly three touches of the short term downtrend ribbon, and then we saw the capitulation with last night’s decline. Not only was my hunch mentioned here 3 days ago that we’d reached a short term equilibrium point correct (as in – that’s probably the rally done for now), but it looks like the supply-side also had a little extra to kick prices down again.

Seems like a great call. But was it? 🤔

Postulation: The short term trend ribbon really is a zone of dynamic supply – a point where the fund managers are looking to sell into promising rallies within established downtrends.

Reality: It’s just pure coincidence. Never confuse coincidence with foresight or skill! 🚫

Those trend ribbons don’t actually exist in time and space outside of my (and probably your) charts. They’re a couple of colourful and often squiggly lines on a chart. That’s all.

They don’t do anything. They can’t – because they don’t buy or sell shares – they’re not part of supply or demand.

They’re just constructs. Tools if you prefer – to help guide us as to what to expect next, but to be fair, are based upon historical evidence up to this point that they kinda-usually do what they’re supposed to.

That is the extent of their usefulness. They are not prognosticators. Whether they turn out to be turning points in the price action is always up to the market – i.e., the interaction between demand and supply.

My point is, no matter how good you think your analysis is – never lose sight of the fact that the future is unknown, the market is unpredictable, and believing that you’ve mastered it is both stupid and dangerous ⚠️.

Always respect the market: Do your analysis. Make your call. Apply your capital in a prudent and conservative way. Accept the outcome. Rinse, repeat ♻️.

As for the Comp technicals, I’d better predict what’s going to happen next otherwise you’re going to get distracted by funny cat videos on TikTok 😻!

That last candle is super interesting, it was another fighting retreat. The headlines will say panic, doom and gloom, but the price action says buy the dip.

As long as the buy the dip mentality remains entrenched, it’s unlikely that we’re going to see a major capitulation. I propose last night’s Comp candle is more consistent with my “equilibrium theory” than the alternative “next leg down” theory.

Imaginary zone of dynamic supply or not – excess supply was undoubtedly found in that short term downtrend ribbon. The twin peaks created by this excess supply at 17137-202 are now critical points of supply that must be consumed if the current rally is to have any chance of growing into the next bull market.

As long as we remain below those twin peaks, and the short term downtrend ribbon more generally, it’s a case of equilibrium at best.

At worst – and I don’t think it will take long to find out – a close below last night’s candle low (i.e., where the faithful buy the dip demand kicked in), would likely set up a retest of 14784 (or somewhere there towards!)

And so I end up at the same place as yesterday – unphased and unbudged from my most conservative risk setting (i.e., 1/3 max risk allocation with up to this amount in short positions).

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

I am super impressed ✅ (click here for full size image)

Scratch my “all we do is follow the US” whining!

A very solid performance from the old XJO today – albeit ending with only a modest demand-side candle in terms of its size.

But was today’s XJO price action really so different from what we witnessed on the Comp last night? 🤔

If we consider both candles represent demand stepping in and buying into uncertainty, pushing prices a decent whack up from session-lows – then probably not.

So, we kinda did simply follow the US again today – just not in terms of headline points up or points down.

Calling a spade a spade here – or at least a full white candle a full white candle – that’s a pretty decent little demand-side showing today. Especially considering it occurred on the cusp of a 4-day pause in trading where absolutely anything can happen in the White House!

I'm super impressed. US futures are roughly flat, so it's not like there was something in Powell's remarks that's spurring risk-on since the close of trade in New York. It's an odd show of strength/confidence in Aussie stocks today – even accounting for the "we kinda still followed the Comp" theory.

Dare we dream about a close above the short term uptrend ribbon next? Or potentially even of a look at 8015 / the long term uptrend ribbon?

At the very least, it signals a far less likely chance of the XJO rolling over – which still cannot be confidently said about the Comp's chart.

US markets will trade on Monday, so we will have a two candles to catch up on when we resume our analysis on Tuesday! Have a safe and happy Easter everyone! 🐣

Uranium Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX

Easter is the time for miracles 🐰 (click here for full size image)

Talking about daring to dream...Is that the uranium futures price trying to crack its short term downtrend!? Easter is the time for miracles! 😁

Economy

Today

• AUS Employment Data March

  • Employment Change: +32,200 vs +39,800 forecast and -57,500 in February (revised down from -52,800)

  • Unemployment Rate: 4.1% vs 4.2% forecast and 4.0% in February (revised down from 4.1%)

  • There has been massive volatility in the monthly employment data recently, so I expect most economists are taking March's numbers with a pinch of salt.

  • Full-time jobs rose 15k and Part-time jobs by 17.2k – a solid result and demonstrates the local labour market is holding up well. Participation rate rising from 66.7% to 66.8% also confirms strength.

Later this week

Thursday

• 22:15 EUR ECB Main Financing Rate (-0.25% p.a. to 2.4% p.a. forecast)

Friday

• ALL DAY AUS Public Holiday

Latest News

More News

Trading higher

• +22.4% Gorilla Gold Mines (GG8) - Lakeview Extended 125m Along Strike, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +22.0% Australian Strategic Materials (ASM) - No news since 14-Apr Response to ASX Query Letter, rare earths / critical minerals stampede continues into third day post President Trump flagged an investigation into semiconductor trade policy.

• +18.2% Meteoric Resources (MEI) - No news 15-Apr Barra do Pacu Resource Adds Strategic High-Grade Rare Earths, ditto rare earths / critical metals stampede.

• +13.3% Brainchip (BRN) - No news, likely also semiconductor / chips / US trade policy related.

• +13.2% Arafura Rare Earths (ARU) - No news, ditto rare earths / critical metals stampede, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +13.1% Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6) - $11.1 million RDTI and refocus on high-priority programs, Clarity signs commercial-scale copper-64 Supply Agreement, and Ceasing to be a substantial holder (Substantial shareholder notice indicates possible reduction in short seller activity).

• +11.0% Iperionx (IPX) - Change of Director's Interest Notice (T. Hannigan on market purchase of $823,456 worth of shares), but also ditto rare earths / critical metals stampede.

• +10.6% Santana Minerals (SMI) - No news 🤔.

• +10.2% Challenger (CGF) - Third quarter update.

• +8.9% Select Harvests (SHV) - No news since 16-Apr 1Q 2025 Trading UpdateN, upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS and price target increased to $5.40 from $5.00.

• +7.7% Ampol (ALD) - No news since 16-Apr 2025 First Quarter Report, 3 out of 4 brokers stuck with buy-equivalent ratings today (see Broker Moves for more information).

• +7.6% Karoon Energy (KAR) - No news since 16-Apr N, 5 out of 7 brokers stuck with buy-equivalent ratings today (see Broker Moves for more information).

• +7.4% Aurelia Metals (AMI) - Federation Exploration Update, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.7% Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) - No news, ditto rare earths / critical metals stampede, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.5% Iluka Resources (ILU) - No news since 16-Apr Quarterly Review to 31 March 2025, ditto rare earths / critical metals stampede.

  See Also

  The ex-Tigers behind burning Benji-Moses feud... and their next big worry — Hoops

Trading lower

• -9.1% The Star Entertainment Group (SGR) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, one of the most Featured (highest conviction) stocks in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -8.0% Nanosonics (NAN) - No news 🤔.

• -5.9% Appen (APX) - N and Ceasing to be a substantial holder, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -5.3% Ridley Corporation (RIC) - Continued negative response to 16-Apr Sale of Wasleys Feedmill and Business Impact, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and long term trend is transitioning from up to down 🔎📉

• -5.3% Monash IVF Group (MVF) - Ceasing to be a substantial holder, (UniSuper), fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -3.8% Regal Partners (RPL) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

Broker Moves

• 29Metals (29M)

  • Retained at sell at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.130 from $0.150

• AIC Mines (A1M)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.000

• Australian Finance Group (AFG)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.800 from $1.680

• Ampol (ALD)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $30.80 from $30.60

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $23.50 from $23.70

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $28.00 from $30.00

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $31.10 from $31.40

• Aurelia Metals (AMI)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.310

• Adveritas (AV1)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.120

• Bank of Queensland (BOQ)

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $6.00

  • Retained at hold at CLSA; Price Target: $6.80 from $6.40

  • Upgraded to neutral from negative at E&P; Price Target: $6.71 from $5.57

  • Retained at underweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $5.80 from $5.60

  • Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.75

  • Upgraded to equal-weight from underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.60 from $6.20

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $7.04 from $6.95

  • Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $6.50

• COG Financial Services (COG)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.350 from $1.230

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.380 from $1.340

• Genesis Minerals (GMD)

  • Retained at buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $6.50

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $5.15 from $5.10

  • Downgraded to neutral from outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.20 from $3.80

  • Downgraded to hold from buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $4.00 from $3.90

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $4.50

• Hillgrove Resources (HGO)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.080 from $0.100

• Hub24 (HUB)

  • Upgraded to positive from neutral at E&P; Price Target: $75.00 from $76.80

• IGO (IGO)

  • Upgraded to hold from sell at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $3.50

• Iluka Resources (ILU)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $4.40 from $5.10

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $6.50 from $6.60

  • Upgraded to overweight from neutral at JP Morgan; Price Target: $4.75 from $4.50

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.50 from $6.80

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.65

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $5.90 from $5.40

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $5.30

• Iperionx (IPX)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $6.65

• James Hardie Industries (JHX)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $41.00 from $47.00

• Jumbo Interactive (JIN)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $11.10 from $13.20

• Karoon Energy (KAR)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.20 from $2.00

  • Retained at neutral at E&P; Price Target: $1.500 from $1.800

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $2.13 from $2.01

  • Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $1.600 from $1.530

  • Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $2.00 from $2.10

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.15 from $2.00

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.650

• Kinatico (KYP)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.290 from $0.280

• Lovisa (LOV)

  • Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $23.00 from $27.00

• Liontown Resources (LTR)

  • Upgraded to hold from sell at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.500 from $0.650

• Metals Acquisition (MAC)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $20.50 from $21.00

• Magnetic Resources (MAU)

  • Initiated at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $2.53

• Meteoric Resources (MEI)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.170 from $0.400

• Mineral Resources (MIN)

  • Downgraded to speculative buy from positive at E&P; Price Target: $34.00 from $45.00

• Metals X (MLX)

  • Retained at hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.500 from $0.430

• Nanosonics (NAN)

  • Downgraded to sell from hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.05 from $4.06

• Navigator Global Investments (NGI)

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.50

• Nickel Industries (NIC)

  • Retained at hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.550 from $0.800

• Predictive Discovery (PDI)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.560

• Paladin Energy (PDN)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $10.20

• Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $2.70

• Perpetual (PPT)

  • Downgraded to neutral from buy at Citi; Price Target: $18.25 from $24.80

• Perseus Mining (PRU)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $5.00

• QBE Insurance Group (QBE)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $25.00

• Ridley Corporation (RIC)

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $2.80 from $2.90

• Rio Tinto (RIO)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $130.00

  • Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $125.00

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $140.80 from $141.90

  • Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $130.00

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $115.00 from $116.00

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $115.50

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $123.00 from $126.00

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $120.00

• Resmed Inc (RMD)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $46.90 from $49.00

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: US$280

• Resolute Mining (RSG)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.000

• Sandfire Resources (SFR)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $10.50 from $11.00

• Select Harvests (SHV)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $5.80

  • Retained at hold at CLSA; Price Target: $4.85 from $5.10

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $5.60 from $5.85

  • Upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS; Price Target: $5.40 from $5.00

• Strickland Metals (STK)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.190

• Turaco Gold (TCG)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.800

• Toubani Resources (TRE)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.150

• Viva Energy Group (VEA)

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.880

• West African Resources (WAF)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $4.50

• Zip Co. (ZIP)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.00 from $3.60

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $3.20 from $3.25

Scans

Top Gainers

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Top Fallers

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52 Week Highs

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52 Week Lows

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Near Highs

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Relative Strength Index (RSI) Oversold

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Carl has over 30-year's investing experience, helping investors navigate several bull and bear markets over this time. He is a well respected markets commentator who specialises in how the global macro impacts Australian and US equities. Carl has a passion for technical analysis and has taught his unique brand of price-action trend following to thousands of Aussie investors.